By Mlondolozi Ndlovu
The economic crisis and elite disintegration that is currently being experienced in the ruling party Zanu PF will lead to the imminent of the ruling party Zanu PF a respected think tank has said.
The Zimbabwe Democratic Institute Democratic (ZDI) is led by respected academic DR Pedzisai Ruhanya and has accurately predicted the current economic and political crisis that is riddling Zimbabwe.
In a research titled ‘Economic Crisis and Prospects of Regime Breakdown in Zimbabwe’ the institute noted that there was general decline in ‘elite cohesion’ within the ruling party.
Elite cohesion is described in the research as the ‘rulers’ ability to maintain the loyalty and cooperation of allies within the regime’.
Ruling parties foster elite cohesion, which is widely viewed as essential to authoritarian stability.
The think tank noted that the ruling party was country’s caught up within a fragmentations which had spread down even into the military.
“As ZANU PF is now riddled with factions that are cutting across the security sector and other institutions of government, this phenomenon has destabilized the military ensuring that conflict between them has become intense,” they said.
“The fate of authoritarian regimes such as ZANU PF during economic crisis depends on three variables namely; one, the role of the private sector and business groups; two, the role of the middle class; and, three, more importantly the role of the military and political elites who control the coercive apparatus of the state,” read the research.
The research noted that they was a problem with the government delaying to pay soldiers and this was a recipe for disaster.
“In regimes such as Zimbabwe with nuances of personalistic and militaristic rule, susceptibility to breakdowns is high when they fail to remunerate their gatekeepers in the form of the military,” said the report.
The reporter further noted that the President was setting the war veterans against each other.
“It is important to note that the security leadership of the state in the army, police service, prison service and the secret agents are veterans of the liberation struggle. Mugabe is therefore setting comrades against comrades and this puts the security sector especially the army in a very compromising position,” said the respectable institute.